Two-thirds of the way through primary season, results from battleground races show Republicans nominating candidates aligned with President Donald Trump while Democrats remain divided between progressives and moderates over how to win.
Republican voters have rallied behind candidates who closely align themselves with Trump, including Rep. Mike Collins and billionaire Rick Jackson in Georgia and Bobby Charles and Marty O’Donnell in Nevada’s 3rd District, and Trump-endorsed candidates have largely won their primaries this year with a few high-profile exceptions in Iowa, Georgia and South Carolina.
In Georgia, the Trump-backed Collins prevailed in last week’s GOP Senate runoff after leaning into his MAGA credentials and now transitions to a match-up against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Jackson won the GOP nomination for Georgia governor over a Trump-backed candidate, vowing to be "Trump’s favorite governor" and touting his support for the president’s agenda. In Nevada’s 2nd District, a Trump-endorsed candidate, McDonnell, has come under fire for hosting a Nazi on his podcast and is trying to pick off Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
Even as the president's popularity sags, driven by dissatisfaction with the economy, his aggressive deportations and an unpopular war in Iran, Republican base voters who drive the primaries are continuing to nominate MAGA candidates rather than moderates; a recent poll found that receiving Trump’s backing provoked a stronger negative reaction from voters who oppose the president than a positive one from those who support him, making it a net negative for a hypothetical candidate.
Democrats have one point of unity: they are messaging against the party in power and arguing they would do a better job addressing the nation’s cost of living, but the party’s clashes over identity and charged issues like Israel and the war in Gaza have been on full display. Andres Ramirez, a Nevada-based Democratic consultant, said, "Voters 'are looking for, 'Hey, who is the right candidate that can actually win and represent me best in where I live?'"
On the Democratic side, nominees include James Talarico for the Texas Senate, scandal-plagued Graham Platner for the Maine Senate, Cait Conley in New York’s 17th District and Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd District.
Progressives have registered notable victories, including Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd District and Matt Dunlap in Maine’s 2nd District, and Platner, despite controversy, crushed Maine Gov. Janet Mills even before the primary officially took place; those wins defeated establishment choices backed by Democrats’ official campaign arms.
Moderates have also advanced in key contests, with veterans like Conley winning in New York and Rebecca Bennett taking New Jersey’s 7th District, and establishment-backed candidates have moved forward in some top battlegrounds, including Aaron Ford in Nevada and Josh Turek in Iowa.
Upcoming matchups include a faceoff next week in Colorado between progressive Manny Rutinel and establishment-backed Shannon Bird and a later summer showdown in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary in which progressive Abdul El-Sayed is leading moderate challengers Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
Jesse Ferguson, a longtime Democratic strategist, said that in some of the nation’s swingiest districts, "the most electable candidates" are largely prevailing, and added, "The most important races — the ones in the swing districts — are being won by the candidates who give us the best chance to win the majority in 2026. That's what matters."