The White House restricted access to Anthropic's latest AI model using export controls, a move that could harm the long-term financial prospects of the U.S. AI industry.
Jim Reid, global head of macro at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a research note that Anthropic and OpenAI's valuations depend on the global adoption of their most advanced models, and government restrictions could limit that growth.
Hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent by the data center hyperscalers and the AI labs to fund their ambitions, seeking to eventually profit from having the best models, the report says.
The article says those calculations can work only if the government doesn't cut off access every time the labs achieve their goals.
Jim Reid said, "You can't rely on something that could be switched off."
Companies are already wary about locking in contracts with major AI labs in case a competitor comes out with a better model, and they can add "potential regulation" to the list of reasons to keep their AI tools diversified.
The report warns that if companies don't want to sign contracts with OpenAI or Anthropic, that could put a ceiling on revenue growth for the two AI labs just before both are expected to go public later this year.
The models Anthropic can no longer offer were pricey for them to run, and AI labs typically subsidize the costs of running their most powerful models in the beginning; Anthropic was rolling out these models for only two weeks to paid subscribers, after which users were going to have to pay a usage fee, and the government in effect shortened Anthropic's subsidy window for its most expensive model ever.
Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute who researches technology and national security issues, said, "Everyone who uses AI will see the writing on the wall that future AI models from OpenAI and Google are also going to be seen as having potential serious security risks." He added that "The challenge with export controls is anytime you do it, you encourage the development of alternative suppliers," and warned, "You have no idea whether the U.S. government is just going to shut off your access to any future models. That's a big advantage to open models."