Tropical Storm Arthur is bringing heavy rain and flash-flood risk to the northern Gulf Coast and is located 40 miles east-northeast of Port Connor, Texas, the National Hurricane Center said.
Arthur's maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, just above the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm, and the hurricane center said the system is not expected to strengthen significantly as it moves northeast; it is expected to move inland over southwestern Louisiana by Wednesday night and to dissipate Wednesday night or early Thursday. NHC Director Michael Brennan said in an online briefing, "The main threat from Arthur is going to be a prolonged multi-day heavy rainfall event that could produce dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding."
The hurricane center said, "Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through early Friday" along a large part of the U.S. coast of the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, La., meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 12 hours. All of Southeast Texas is under a flood watch until 7 p.m. Wednesday, and Galveston County officials are urging people not to drive through flooded streets.
Louisiana, Texas and Mississippi have been hit with near-constant rain over the past few days, and meteorologist Rob Marciano breaks down the forecast.
Arthur's formation comes slightly ahead of schedule: from 1991 to 2020 the average date for the first named Atlantic storm is June 20, the hurricane center said. The center added that the 2026 forecast calls for fewer storms than average and that a recently declared El Niño will likely make it harder for hurricanes to form. Climate change is increasing the intensity of hurricanes, as warmer sea water evaporates more easily, providing fuel for these storms, and warmer air can also hold much more water, leading to heavier rainfall; warmer ocean waters also make it more likely that a large and destructive hurricane could form this year, and it only takes one large, powerful storm to bring life-threatening rainfall and storm surges that can devastate areas far inland from the coast.