Federal regulators are investigating former Rep. George Santos for possible insider trading tied to wagers he made on the prediction market Kalshi in February.
Kalshi flagged a series of wagers Santos made in February that were tied to his attendance at President Donald Trump's State of the Union speech, detected that he had been placing bets against his own attendance, and referred the suspicious trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Justice Department, sources said.
According to sources, Santos placed bets on Kalshi that he would not attend the 2026 State of the Union address. On Feb. 23 he posted, "I'll be in the gallery" for the president's speech, and the next day he posted, "Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML."
Kalshi declined to comment. A representative for the Justice Department did not immediately return a request for comment, and a representative for the CFTC said in a statement that the commission cannot confirm or deny any investigation. A source familiar with the agency confirmed that Santos is being investigated, but declined to say for what and when the probe began.
Santos acknowledged in a post on X that "the DOJ might be looking into me," and wrote, "I will comment further when appropriate and clarify everything accordingly while being mindful and respectful of any process that might be underway," asking media not to inquire until then.
Santos, 37, represented New York's 3rd Congressional District from Jan. to Dec. 2023 and was expelled from Congress while under federal investigation. In 2024 he pleaded guilty to federal charges including wire fraud, identity theft and money laundering, was sentenced to 87 months in prison and ordered to pay almost $374,000 in restitution and over $200,000 in forfeiture. Trump commuted Santos' sentence last year, saying he had been "horribly mistreated."
Sources did not indicate whether the Justice Department began a criminal case. Federal prosecutors in New York have brought two insider trading cases involving Kalshi's rival prediction market, Polymarket: in one case a special forces soldier who bet on the raid that ousted Nicholas Maduro from Venezuela pleaded not guilty, and in a second case a Google software engineer who allegedly made Google-related bets based on inside information has not yet entered a plea.